DATALOFT CONSENSUS UK HOUSE PRICE FORECASTS

Dataloft expects that UK house prices will rise in 2018 but only by a narrow margin – an average of around 1.8%, ranging from small falls in some markets – notably London, to a 5% uplift in others.

As ever, there will be significant variations at local level – these are, after all, forecasts of the national average. Local markets can outperform for a plethora of reasons, including: new train services, new employers, new visitor attractions and new housing completions. The national outlook is mostly driven by availability of mortgage finance and economic confidence – if either are low, demand subsides.

An escalation in our forecast rates of growth could be triggered by successes in the Brexit negotiations and if economic indicators return to their pre-Brexit trajectories. Downside risks include significant job losses, rising inflation and rising interest rates – all of which will put a squeeze on affordability.